Canada was once a dream destination for Indian students. Is that changing?

For years, Canada was the ultimate dream destination for middle-class Indian students seeking a reliable pathway to permanent residency. Today, that dream is rapidly unraveling, with new data revealing an unprecedented exodus of Indian applicants turning their backs on North American institutions. At an overseas education consultancy in Delhi, the shift is immediately visible. Students and parents flip through brochures for universities in Italy, Germany, and Australia, while Canada—a former top choice—is largely absent. "Until 2023, most of our applications were for Canada," says Shobhit Anand, a consultancy director. Now, he notes an 80% drop in interest. "People don't want to apply to Canada anymore. We are also seeing a very high visa rejection rate." The anecdotal evidence aligns with stark official figures. A recent report by Canada's auditor general shows that the share of Indians in the incoming international student population plummeted to just 8.1% in September 2025, down drastically from 51.6% in 2023. The decline stems from a confluence of factors: strict visa restrictions, soaring living costs, and a lingering diplomatic crisis between New Delhi and Ottawa. Earlier this year, Canada imposed a two-year cap on international study permits, limiting undergraduate and diploma admissions to roughly 350,000. Simultaneously, the financial proof required to study and live in Canada—the Guaranteed Investment Certificate (GIC)—was doubled to more than C$20,000 in 2024. "For many families, securing that amount is difficult - and with the risk of visa rejection, they hesitate," says Sushil Sukhwani of Edwise Overseas Education. "That became a major barrier." The risk Sukhwani mentions is well-documented. Study permit rejections for Indian applicants surged from 38% in 2023 to 52% in 2024. Furthermore, a once-popular fast-track visa system, the Student Direct Stream (SDS), was scrapped after officials discovered it was being "targeted by non-genuine students seeking entry to Canada." The auditor general's report noted that nearly all approved SDS applications originated from India. Beyond the visa hurdles, the post-graduation reality has dampened enthusiasm. During the post-pandemic "international student boom," many private colleges expanded rapidly as revenue-driven businesses, offering limited academic value. Consequently, job opportunities failed to keep pace with the growing number of graduates, leaving many unable to recoup their investments. "There's real fear. Even if you get there, can you make it work?" Anand says, recounting the story of a 24-year-old former student who recently returned to India after failing to secure stable employment in Canada. The crisis has not impacted all institutions equally. McGill University president Deep Saini notes a clear divide among Indian applicants. "One group is academically driven - they apply to top universities in Canada, the US or Europe for quality education. The other sees education primarily as a pathway to migration and tends to enrol in smaller colleges," he says. While elite universities like McGill experienced a slight dip due to broader diplomatic tensions, Saini categorizes it as "collateral damage" and notes that international student numbers are now returning to normal. Diplomatic relations are showing signs of improvement under Prime Minister Mark Carney, who recently visited India with university officials to forge new education partnerships. Yet, for students like 17-year-old Tanishq Khurana, the decision remains fraught with anxiety. Initially deterred by warnings from consultants—"I was told about rising visa rejections and colleges limiting undergraduate admissions. That made me rethink everything," he says—Khurana ultimately decided to apply for a clinical psychology degree, swayed by family ties. "The reason for my choice of Canada is fairly simple. My sister is settled there and so are many of my cousins. So the country is familiar and the education and job opportunities are better than in India," he says. Still, with living costs rising and jobs harder to secure, the promise that once came with a Canadian study permit is no longer a given. For many Indian students, what was once a reliable plan has now become a high-stakes gamble.